Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Monday, November 3, 2008

One more encouraging piece of news

Obama just scored an upset in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. For those of you who don't follow these things, Dixville Notch is the first place in the nation to vote. While polls open elsewhere at 7:00 a.m. Dixville opens at midnight. It's a town of 75 people, so the votes are tallied fairly quickly. The result? Obama 15, McCain 6. As small as this victory is for Obama, it may spell disaster for McCain, as the last time Dixville went for a democrat was when Humphry was running.

Last Looks

Here's my last stab at a map. My map is a little optimistic, but it's because I'm hoping for some good action in NC. A couple of things to look at in tomorrow's returns.

1. Keep an eye on Virginia and North Carolina. These are two Republican strongholds where Obama has made a great deal of impact. If he holds his lead in Virginia, or ekes out a win in North Carolina(they are statistically tied right now), look for a big night for the big O.

2. The Weather- Nate Silver from 538 has put up the weather for several swing states, including the following:

Minneapolis, MN Showers, 54F
Milwaukee, WI Scattered Showers, 57F
Indianapolis, IN Scattered Showers, 65F
Cleveland, OH Scattered Showers, 60F
Cincinnati, OH Scattered Showers, 65F
Pittsburgh, PA Scattered Showers, 58F
Philadelphia, PA Showers, 58F
Manchester, NH Scattered Showers, 54F
Arlington, VA Scattered Showers, 62F
Roanoke, VA Rain/Snow Showers, 49F
Charlotte, NC Scattered Showers, 61F
Jacksonville, FL Mostly Sunny, 74F
Miami, FL Scattered T-Storms, 80F

Conventionally, in some of these battleground states, we'd like to see nice weather. Nice weather brings people to the polls in droves, especially when they're trying to kick out an incumbent party. In this case though, the scattered storms and snow throughout swing states may end up enforcing the since of hopelessness ("What's the point in standing out in the rain if we're not ultimately going to win") on the part of Republicans hoping to score a last minute victory. This, coupled with the general excitement of the Democrats, could help run up a big Electoral Vote score.

4. The Montana Effect-Has nothing to do with Miley Cyrus, but more to do with the fact that Obama is tracking at about dead even out in Big Sky Country. Mostly, this depends on how this news is spinning throughout the rest of today and tomorrow. Deep focus on the fact that McCain is losing Montana will spark some Republicans to get out in the field, but mostly, it's going to spur a last minute insurgency in Democrats looking to deepen the electoral cut. This activity, coupled with a forecast for rain in some of the rural(like there's anything else in Montana), will make for some good action. I don't imagine that Montana will actually go blue, but it's going to be interesting to see the final numbers.

5.Arizona-This state is almost definitely not going blue. That being said, there has been a number of polls that have come out recently putting McCain's lead only
at about 4-6 points. While all you need is one vote to win, this is down substantially from the double digit lead McCain enjoyed a few weeks ago.
If Obama wins, look to Arizona(and Montana) to tell us how much of a "Mandate" he has at the end of the night.

6.Apparently CNN will have Holograms. So, there's that.

John McCain's Concession Speech