Monday, November 3, 2008
Here's my last stab at a map. My map is a little optimistic, but it's because I'm hoping for some good action in NC. A couple of things to look at in tomorrow's returns.
1. Keep an eye on
2. The Weather- Nate Silver from 538 has put up the weather for several swing states, including the following:
Minneapolis, MN Showers, 54F
Milwaukee, WI Scattered Showers, 57F
Indianapolis, IN Scattered Showers, 65F
Cleveland, OH Scattered Showers, 60F
Cincinnati, OH Scattered Showers, 65F
Pittsburgh, PA Scattered Showers, 58F
Philadelphia, PA Showers, 58F
Manchester, NH Scattered Showers, 54F
Arlington, VA Scattered Showers, 62F
Roanoke, VA Rain/Snow Showers, 49F
Charlotte, NC Scattered Showers, 61F
Jacksonville, FL Mostly Sunny, 74F
Miami, FL Scattered T-Storms, 80F
Conventionally, in some of these battleground states, we'd like to see nice weather. Nice weather brings people to the polls in droves, especially when they're trying to kick out an incumbent party. In this case though, the scattered storms and snow throughout swing states may end up enforcing the since of hopelessness ("What's the point in standing out in the rain if we're not ultimately going to win") on the part of Republicans hoping to score a last minute victory. This, coupled with the general excitement of the Democrats, could help run up a big Electoral Vote score.
4. The Montana Effect-Has nothing to do with Miley Cyrus, but more to do with the fact that Obama is tracking at about dead even out in Big Sky Country. Mostly, this depends on how this news is spinning throughout the rest of today and tomorrow. Deep focus on the fact that McCain is losing
at about 4-6 points. While all you need is one vote to win, this is down substantially from the double digit lead McCain enjoyed a few weeks ago.
If Obama wins, look to
6.Apparently CNN will have Holograms. So, there's that.